Month-End Content Calendar

This Week, January 5, 2009

We are ringing in the New Year with an onslaught of content – our upcoming Monthly Investment Commentary includes a roundup of the year that was, and our thoughts on what we might see in 2009 and beyond. more››

Model Portfolio Change Recommendation for REITs

On December 17, 2008, REITs closed very close to our sell target ($39 on Vanguard’s REIT ETF) and at one point were above our target. If they reach this level again we recommend eliminating the position with the proceeds invested in additional high-yield bond positions. more››

2008 Estimated Fund Distributions

To help us make appropriate investment decisions over the remainder of the year, we have been collecting estimates of upcoming distributions from funds we use in our taxable client accounts. This table, updated as of December 29, provides these estimates.  Any distributions that have already been made are highlighted in grey. more››

Asset Class Review: U.S. Equities

From its peak, the S&P 500 is down over 40% as of this writing, and trailing 10-year returns have been abysmal, failing even to keep pace with inflation. ... Earnings have declined from their peak, and are now well below their long-term trend line, which mitigates some of the risk of a large and sustained decline going forward. However, it is likely that earnings will go lower before they recover. We cannot know the timing or magnitude of the eventual bounce-back, but we do believe a recovery of some sort will begin within the next couple of years. more››